EUR/USD is approaching the 1.0500 level this week, influenced by a weaker dollar following softer US consumer confidence data. The closing price yesterday was 1.0512, but it does not indicate a convincing breakout at this stage.

The 100-day moving average, currently at 1.0537, serves as another important technical point. Buyers face challenges in surpassing the 1.0500 mark and need to break above the moving average to demonstrate stronger momentum.

Minimal catalysts are expected today, leading to a focus on market fluctuations. Larger option expirations may limit price movement below the 1.0500-30 range before US trading begins.

Market behaviours, particularly month-end flows, will be significant in the coming days. Technical analysis remains essential for understanding potential trends for EUR/USD this week.

The euro is struggling to gain ground, even as the dollar softens. Despite moving higher yesterday, it has yet to establish a clear direction. At present, there isn’t enough strength to claim a definitive move beyond 1.0500. Traders remain cautious, watching whether the level holds or if buyers manage to push past resistance at the 100-day moving average.

The day ahead is unlikely to bring anything unexpected, at least in terms of economic catalysts. Without fresh data releases or policy shifts, price movements will likely depend on sentiment and positioning. Larger option expirations set to take place could keep fluctuations within a relatively tight area. This explains why activity may remain contained below 1.0530 until later in the day when US traders become more active.

As we near the end of the month, attention shifts slightly. Some flows tied to portfolio adjustments could create short bursts of momentum. These movements are typically harder to predict but can lead to brief shake-ups in direction. For now, the technical side of things is driving most of the narrative. The 1.0537 level remains a hurdle buyers must clear to gain momentum, while a dip below 1.0500 without recovery could open the door for further declines.

Looking ahead, volatility might pick up with the release of more economic data later in the week. Until then, traders should consider how existing market structure is influencing price action. The lack of strong conviction so far suggests caution until a clearer trend emerges.