The recent developments in the Oval Office have shifted attention back to tariffs as the new month begins. Tariffs imposed by Trump on Canada and Mexico are expected to start tomorrow, with the deadline for negotiations now urgent.
Previous discussions regarding issues like fentanyl appear to have been sidelined, raising questions about whether there will be delays in the tariff implementation. US commerce secretary Lutnick has indicated that tariffs will indeed be enacted but has left details for Trump to negotiate.
Early Actions And Uncertainty
In the initial 42 days of his presidency, actions have yet to match rhetoric, leaving uncertainty about the immediate future.
Tariffs on Canada and Mexico are now set to take effect as scheduled, unless an unexpected shift occurs in the ongoing talks. With discussions still active, it is unclear whether any last-minute changes will emerge. Trump has continued to express confidence in his position, while Canadian and Mexican representatives remain firm in their responses. Negotiators from both countries have maintained that they will not accept terms they deem unfair.
Lutnick’s stance further complicates matters, as his statements suggest that while the tariffs are officially moving forward, the final decision remains with Trump. This adds another level of unpredictability since his previous statements on trade have not always aligned with the measures ultimately taken. Businesses with exposure to these markets must now prepare for potential disruptions, while also factoring in the possibility of concessions being made at the last moment.
The decision-making so far has not followed a clear pattern. While early signals pointed towards a strict enforcement of trade measures, past instances have shown that adjustments can be made unexpectedly. Some policy announcements have been bold, only for the actual implementation to be delayed or softened. If this happens again, markets may respond with some volatility, as initial reactions to tariffs tend to be immediate. Whether this will be a repeat of past behaviour or something entirely different remains to be seen.
Shifts In Policy Priorities
Beyond tariffs, other policy matters have received less focus in recent speeches. The fentanyl issue, which was previously described as a priority, has now been mentioned less frequently. External observers have noted that this shift in priorities appears to reflect where pressure is being applied the most. While some argue that decisions are being made strategically, others suggest that changes in direction are based on immediate circumstances.
In practical terms, the coming days could produce unexpected reactions in sectors that rely on North American trade. If the tariffs go forward without adjustment, industries that depend on cross-border supply chains will likely face cost increases. If delays occur, however, some of the recent anticipation in the market will quickly reverse. With no official statement providing further clarity, businesses must weigh the likelihood of either result based on past patterns.
Market participants watching these developments must consider which signals hold the greatest weight. Early statements from Trump have often been declarative, but adjustments have followed behind closed doors. Confidence from negotiators such as Lutnick implies that firm action is coming, yet there remains a possibility that conversations will continue until the last available moment. If there is one clear expectation, it is that uncertainty will persist until a final announcement is made.
