AUD/JPY has shown a modest recovery after experiencing sharp losses last week. Despite this recovery, the currency pair remains below its 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), indicating a prevailing bearish outlook.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to linger in negative territory, reflecting limited buying strength. The MACD histogram remains flat, indicative of a lack of momentum for an upward trend.
A decisive break above the 20-day SMA could change the current sentiment. Conversely, if selling pressure persists, the pair may return to lows around the 94.50 mark. Resistance is noted around 96.00, which could suggest a potential shift if surpassed.
The latest movement in AUD/JPY suggests a temporary breather from its prior decline, though it has yet to clear levels that would indicate a stronger recovery. Remaining below the 20-day SMA keeps a cautious tone in place, and traders will be watching to see if sentiment changes. When the RSI stays in negative territory, it underlines weak buying interest, meaning any rallies could struggle for follow-through. Meanwhile, a flat MACD histogram shows that momentum is lacking, which adds weight to the idea that markets are waiting for a stronger catalyst before committing to a direction.
If the pair manages to push above the 20-day SMA, it might encourage more buying, but without additional confirmation, scepticism will remain. On the flip side, should selling pressure intensify again, recent lows around 94.50 would re-enter the picture, as previous price action has shown support in that region. Resistance at 96.00 means that if buyers step in more decisively, a move beyond that point could reshape near-term expectations.
Given these conditions, traders should be prepared for shifts depending on whether strength builds or weakness returns. Watching for confirmation signals such as RSI breaking higher or MACD turning positive will be key before adjusting positions.
