Trafigura Group, a commodities trader based in Singapore, has identified U.S. foreign policy towards Iran as a major risk influencing crude prices. Ben Luckock, the head of oil trading, noted that Iran’s oil exports have increased, while the uncertainty surrounding potential political changes in the U.S. could create market volatility.

Global oil supply remains stable, potentially mitigating disruptions. Luckock also indicated that the U.S. might resume Russian oil imports ahead of Europe if a resolution regarding Ukraine is achieved. The emergence of a shadow fleet of around 1,000 tankers transporting oil from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela is an important factor in global oil supply dynamics.

Ben’s assessment of geopolitical risks highlights the weight that U.S. policy decisions carry in shaping market conditions. The increase in Iranian oil exports suggests a more lenient approach for the time being, but there is no assurance that this will continue. A shift in leadership in Washington later this year could trigger tighter restrictions, possibly cutting off some of this supply and leading to price fluctuations. Traders will need to stay alert to any signals out of the U.S. regarding sanctions or diplomatic efforts, as even minor developments could alter expectations.

Supply stability provides a degree of offset against unexpected disruptions. Even so, the reliance on unsanctioned shipments via a growing fleet of unregistered tankers introduces additional unpredictability. These vessels, moving oil from countries facing sanctions, enable flows that might otherwise be constrained. However, any tightening of enforcement measures by Western governments could create friction, either by limiting available transport capacity or by adding further compliance risks for buyers.

If tensions in Ukraine ease, the possibility that Washington could reverse restrictions on Russian oil imports ahead of similar action from European nations presents another variable. The timing of such policy shifts will be key, especially in relation to broader diplomatic discussions. The market may begin to price in expectations before an official decision is made, leading to movements in futures contracts as participants adjust their exposure accordingly.

At the same time, the presence of a vast fleet operating outside standard regulatory frameworks poses questions about long-term supply chains. With around 1,000 vessels engaged in these trades, a considerable volume of oil is circumventing traditional tracking mechanisms. Any crackdown on these operations could disrupt availability, adding another source of uncertainty.

Keeping track of policy announcements, enforcement actions, and shipping activity will be necessary to gauge market movements in the weeks ahead. Shifts in supply chains could emerge suddenly, especially if there are stricter controls on the movement of oil from sanctioned nations. Anticipating these adjustments will require close attention to government actions and trading patterns.