The Australian Dollar (AUD) is projected to trade between 0.6325 and 0.6365 against the US Dollar (USD). In the long term, AUD is expected to consolidate within a range of 0.6280 to 0.6410 due to fading upward momentum.

Recent observations indicated a slight increase in downward pressure, resulting in a dip to 0.6323, before closing at 0.6344, down 0.09%. The expectation for today is continued trading within 0.6325 to 0.6365.

On February 25, the AUD’s outlook was revised to neutral, reflecting the reduced upward momentum. The proposed range remains unchanged.

What we are witnessing now is a period where the Australian Dollar has lost some of its previous strength, settling into a relatively narrow band. The dip to 0.6323 before recovering slightly to 0.6344 suggests that support remains, but any meaningful push upwards appears to be lacking.

With today’s expectations maintaining the 0.6325 to 0.6365 zone, it suggests stability, though not without its challenges. The shift to a neutral stance on 25 February wasn’t without reason. The fading ability to move higher has kept the currency from making any decisive moves in either direction.

Nathan and his team had previously hinted at this phase of reduced momentum, and that assessment is playing out as expected. Traders focusing on derivatives should consider what this means beyond mere short-term levels. When volatility remains low and a currency consolidates within set boundaries, one approach is to position trades around these levels rather than anticipating a breakout.

James has pointed out that markets can stay rangebound for longer than expected, especially when external drivers are lacking. This means that for now, any aggressive directional trades should be approached with caution. Market participants should also keep a close watch for any macroeconomic developments that could introduce fresh momentum.

Short-term, the strategy remains straightforward—recognising the areas where price is holding and adjusting as needed. The longer-term range of 0.6280 to 0.6410 remains in place, reinforcing the idea that while movement exists, it’s unlikely to break out of these boundaries just yet. The reduced upward momentum suggests patience is required when looking for opportunities.

A careful approach remains the best course of action as we move forward. Emma highlighted that external factors such as interest rate expectations or economic data could be the missing ingredient needed to jolt the market—but until then, traders should work with what they have in front of them.