As risk aversion rises, USDJPY retreats below a crucial swing zone towards 61.8% retracement level

by VT Markets
/
Mar 8, 2025

The USDJPY is declining as risk aversion grows, with stock markets facing pressure and bond yields decreasing. The 10-year yield has fallen by 5 basis points, while the 2-year yield decreased by 5.7 basis points.

Equity markets are also weakening, with the NASDAQ down by 1.63% and the S&P 500 declining by 1.23%. On the technical side, USDJPY has dropped below a significant swing area between 147.21 and 147.34, with the next key support identified at the 61.8% retracement level from September’s rally, positioned at 146.94. A sustained movement below this level may suggest a more negative technical outlook.

The decline in USDJPY reflects a growing sense of caution in financial markets. Investors typically move towards safer assets when uncertainty rises, and we see that happening now. Stock markets are under pressure, and at the same time, bond yields are falling. Lower yields indicate stronger demand for bonds, which often corresponds with a risk-off approach from investors. The 10-year yield is down by 5 basis points, while the more short-term focused 2-year yield has fallen slightly more, showing a 5.7 basis point decrease.

Equities are feeling the strain as well. The NASDAQ, which leans towards technology stocks, has dropped by 1.63%, while the S&P 500 is lower by 1.23%. Selling pressure continues to be apparent, and if this persists, it could reinforce the broader aversion to risk.

From a technical perspective, USDJPY has now moved below an area that previously acted as support between 147.21 and 147.34. This signals growing weakness, as failure to hold above these levels suggests sellers are gaining control. The next line to watch is the 61.8% retracement from September’s rally, located at 146.94. Given how widely followed this retracement level is among market participants, a breach below it could trigger further downside movement.

If downward momentum strengthens, we may see additional technical selling from traders who rely on these key levels for their strategies. This kind of positioning can create sharper movements, particularly if broader risk sentiment remains weak. On the other hand, if buyers step in around current levels, there may be an effort to stabilise price action. However, that would largely depend on whether broader market conditions allow for it.

For now, the tone in financial markets remains cautious. The reaction in stocks and bonds underscores this, and the technical break in USDJPY aligns with that sentiment. If this trend continues, it would not be surprising to see more defensive positioning across asset classes.

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