ECB’s Centeno stated that the economy is nearing the end of the current inflationary cycle. He confirmed that rate cuts will persist until inflation reaches the designated target.
The ECB’s latest projections indicate headline inflation at 2.3% for 2025, 1.9% for 2026, and 2.0% for 2027. The increase for 2025 is attributed to stronger energy price movements.
Inflation Forecast Breakdown
Excluding energy and food, inflation forecasts are 2.2% for 2025, 2.0% for 2026, and 1.9% for 2027. The current average remains above the CPI target of 2.0%, so convergence has not yet been achieved.
Centeno’s remarks suggest the European Central Bank will continue lowering rates for the foreseeable future. Policy adjustments will aim to bring inflation in line with the target, though this process may take several years. Recent predictions reflect this, with inflation not expected to hit 2% consistently until 2026.
Fresh estimates for next year show inflation slightly above this level, primarily due to movements in energy markets. This means external cost pressures are still playing a role, which could introduce some volatility. However, when excluding energy and food, projections are lower, meaning underlying trends may be moving in the desired direction. That being said, numbers remain marginally off target, reinforcing why rate reductions are set to continue.
Policy Adjustments And Market Reactions
For traders analysing price movements, expectations around policy shifts remain clear. If projections hold, rate adjustments will follow a path aimed at achieving price stability. While current levels suggest inflation is moderating, the ECB has made it clear that policy will stay accommodative until full convergence occurs.
Understanding these shifts allows for better positioning in the weeks ahead. Inflation expectations set by the ECB establish a framework for possible rate decisions, influencing how markets react. By paying close attention to how actual inflation progresses relative to forecasts, any deviations in pricing trends can present new opportunities.
Policymakers have not indicated any abrupt changes, so adjustments will likely be gradual. The pace depends on how quickly inflation aligns with targets. Given that energy prices remain unpredictable, this element must be factored into short-term expectations. While broader trends suggest a downward trajectory, external factors mean vigilance is still required.
