Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum seeks to finalise a tariff deal with the US by next Tuesday. This deadline has been established by President Trump.

Sheinbaum stressed the need for a calm approach, advising against misinterpreting Trump’s comments. She underscored the urgency of concluding the agreement, which is tied to ongoing discussions about security and trade matters.

Sheinbaum is pressing to conclude the trade discussions with Washington, aiming to meet the deadline set by Trump. She has urged a steady-handed approach in handling the rhetoric from the White House, cautioning against reading too much into statements that might shift with little warning. Completing the arrangement is not just about trade—it also ties into broader conversations around security cooperation.

Washington’s position remains firm. Trump has repeatedly indicated that failure to finalise the agreement will result in new tariffs. The pressure is mounting, and while talks continue, businesses on both sides of the border are bracing for potential economic effects. The US administration’s strategy appears straightforward: use tariffs as leverage to secure commitments on trade and security policies. This puts Mexico in a position where delay could mean additional costs for exporters.

For traders, particularly those dealing with derivatives, price movements in the coming weeks will be influenced by these negotiations. The direction of tariffs, as well as their likelihood, will play a role in how markets react. Risk pricing will reflect the probability of either a resolution or additional trade barriers.

We have seen Sheinbaum take a measured tone to avoid adding uncertainty to an already complex discussion. Her efforts to maintain a working dialogue with Washington signal that Mexico is looking to minimise economic disruption. Market participants should pay attention to signals from both sides, as developments will shape near-term volatility.

Trump has shown before that he is willing to escalate pressure quickly. At this stage, any perceived hesitation from Mexico could provoke stronger language or even immediate action. This means rapid shifts in sentiment are possible, making it essential to track official statements rather than relying on speculation.

The deadline set for Tuesday leaves little time for drawn-out discussions, meaning any delays or extensions could themselves prompt market reactions. If an agreement is reached, pricing adjustments may come swiftly. Uncertainty surrounding tariffs has already weighed on some sectors, and an outcome—whether positive or negative—will remove some of that guesswork.

Sheinbaum’s strategy so far has been one of engagement rather than confrontation. Whether this leads to a resolution before the deadline remains to be seen, but what is apparent is that preparation is key. Markets do not wait for politicians to finish negotiating; they react in real time to any shift in expectations. Tracking these shifts closely will be essential in navigating the days ahead.