WTI crude oil is trading around $69.90 per barrel, marking its first potential monthly decline since November, primarily due to concerns over global economic growth and fuel demand. The US will implement a 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports starting March 4, affecting market dynamics.
On Thursday, oil prices increased over 2% after the US revoked a Chevron license for operations in Venezuela, which may disrupt the country’s oil output significantly. The OPEC+ group is assessing whether to maintain or increase oil production levels amid uncertainty from US sanctions on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia.
US economic data indicates a slowdown, with GDP growth decreasing to 2.3% in Q4 and jobless claims rising to 242,000, signalling potential labour market easing. The market is awaiting the PCE price index report, important for inflation assessment.
At present, crude oil is sitting close to $69.90 per barrel, marking a possible end to its monthly streak of gains that began in November. A primary factor behind this shift is mounting concern over the strength of global economic growth and what that might mean for fuel consumption. Adding to market uncertainty is Washington’s plan to introduce a 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports starting in early March, which could create additional strain on cross-border energy trade.
Thursday saw oil prices jump by more than 2% after Washington pulled Chevron’s Venezuelan license, a decision that may have lasting effects on the country’s crude output. Given Venezuela’s struggling production levels, any further setbacks could impact global supply calculations. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is still weighing its next move—whether to maintain existing production quotas or adjust them—as it considers the impact of US sanctions on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia. The uncertainty around those three nations places added pressure on the group’s decision-making, something traders will need to keep a close watch on.
Turning to the US economy, fresh data reveals some softening. Economic growth slowed to 2.3% in the final quarter of last year, and jobless claims ticked up to 242,000, a figure that could indicate early signs of a cooling labour market. This raises questions about future demand for crude, particularly if broader concerns over economic momentum continue. Attention now shifts to the PCE price index report, widely used to gauge inflation pressures. Its implications will go beyond monetary policy expectations and could influence how markets position themselves in the short term.
