Swati Dhingra, an external member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, is scheduled to speak on 26 February 2025 at 1630 GMT (1130 US Eastern time).

The event will occur at Britain’s National Institute of Economic and Social Research and will address trade fragmentation and its effects on monetary policy. Dhingra’s views generally align with a more accommodative stance within the committee.

Swati’s upcoming speech presents an opportunity to gain a deeper understanding of how she assesses wider economic shifts affecting monetary policy. Given her preference for a more accommodative approach, any reference to inflation persistence, labour market trends, or global trade disruptions will be relevant. If she acknowledges easing price pressures, this could reinforce expectations that rates may need to be adjusted earlier rather than later. Conversely, if she highlights lingering inflationary risks, markets will likely reassess the probability of near-term policy shifts.

Earlier statements suggest she has been wary of overtightening, arguing that economic slack could become a concern if borrowing costs remain too restrictive. Any indication that she views current settings as overly restrictive would strengthen the case for policy adjustments in the months ahead. However, if she signals patience, it would suggest that she believes further evidence is needed before changes should be made.

While broader discussions on trade fragmentation might seem detached from immediate policy decisions, they could offer insight into structural pressures shaping inflation trends. If she links ongoing trade disruptions to supply-side inflation, markets may take note, especially if she suggests this could limit the speed at which inflation moderates. On the other hand, if she argues that trade shifts might relieve pricing pressures over time, this would lend weight to expectations for adjustments sooner rather than later.

Other members of the committee have expressed varying opinions on when and how policy should respond to changing conditions. Should Swati’s speech align more closely with the more cautious voices, expectations of swift policy shifts may weaken. However, if she diverges from recent cautious remarks and leans towards earlier action, that will confirm her stance on the direction she believes monetary policy should take.

It will be essential to assess not just her broad statements but also the finer details. Any mention of specific data points, such as wage growth, consumer spending, or global supply chains, will provide further clarity on how she interprets recent trends. If she emphasises uncertainty, it may mean patience is warranted. Should she focus on downside risks to economic activity, this would reinforce arguments favouring adjustments sooner rather than later.

While Swati’s influence within the committee may not be decisive, her remarks will help shape expectations. Markets will be keen to gauge whether her tone shifts in response to recent data, and any divergence from prior comments will not go unnoticed. The reaction will depend on whether she signals that current conditions warrant faster adjustments or if she believes there is still more to assess before taking action.