Canada’s January wholesale trade increased by 1.8%, based on a 59.1% survey response that will receive further updates.

Aircraft movements in Canada have recovered to only 92% of the levels seen in 2019, contrasting with the US where flights have surpassed pre-pandemic figures.

Furthermore, monthly load factors for November and December were lower than those recorded in 2023.

In a positive development, a survey indicates a forecasted 5.5% rise in non-residential tangible capital asset investment for 2025, with growth expected in both public and private sectors.

However, concerns exist regarding potential decreases in consumption due to tariff uncertainties and challenges in the housing market, particularly in Ontario and British Columbia.

The reported wholesale trade expansion in January suggests that commercial activity is showing momentum. However, the reliability of this figure remains open to adjustment due to the modest response rate in the survey. While the initial number indicates growth, revisions in the coming updates could either reinforce or temper the outlook. If the final figures continue to reflect gains, this would point to robust transactional activity across multiple sectors.

Air travel remains subdued when compared to pre-pandemic benchmarks. Canadian airport traffic still lags behind 2019 figures, whereas the United States has surpassed its previous peak. This slower revival suggests that domestic and international travel demand remains somewhat constrained. Load factors for the final two months of last year also fell short of those recorded the previous year, implying that capacity utilisation on flights has not recovered in tandem with initial optimism. Without a rebound in passenger volume, revenue efficiency for airlines operating in Canada may face pressure in the near term.

On a more encouraging note, projections indicate an expected rise in non-residential investment next year. Both private businesses and government entities anticipate increased spending on physical assets, aligning with broader economic expansion efforts. If these plans materialise, they could support employment levels and economic development. That said, external risks could still influence whether planned investments translate into actual expenditures.

Consumption risks remain evident, stemming from uncertainty around trade barriers and affordability challenges in property markets, particularly in Ontario and British Columbia. Ongoing concerns surrounding tariffs could weigh on purchasing behaviour, especially if import costs rise. Meanwhile, housing-related difficulties could constrain discretionary spending as households prioritise essential financial obligations. Market reactions to these factors will reflect whether demand remains resilient.