OPEC+ is currently uncertain about its plans for an oil output increase in April. While Russia and the UAE support proceeding with the hike, Saudi Arabia prefers a delay.

The next Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting is set for April 5, 2025, to review compliance with OPEC+ agreements. Following that, the full OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for May 28, 2025.

OPEC+ members are not in agreement on whether to move forward with an oil production increase in April. Russia and the UAE favour going ahead as planned, but Saudi Arabia stands on the other side, advocating for a postponement.

This difference in approach brings uncertainty to the oil market. Traders paying attention to these shifts will note that when key producers disagree, price swings often follow. The decision will shape expectations around supply levels in the coming months, and markets tend to react before any formal announcement is made.

One date already on the calendar is 5 April 2025, when the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee will meet to assess whether countries are keeping to agreed production targets. Historically, these gatherings do not result in immediate policy changes, but they are closely followed for any signs of shifting positions among member states. If discussions reveal movement towards a compromise or an intensification of divisions, the price response could be swift.

Not long after, on 28 May 2025, the full OPEC+ meeting will take place, where ministers will determine future output levels. Given the divide between Saudi Arabia on one side and Russia with the UAE on the other, this meeting could bring more debate than usual. Those watching carefully will remember how past disagreements within OPEC+ have led to unexpected outcomes, including sudden changes in policy that caught the market off guard.

What happens between now and then will depend on many factors—demand expectations, geopolitical risks, and economic conditions. Traders assessing the situation in the coming weeks should monitor whether other OPEC+ members align with either camp. If more nations side with Saudi Arabia, delays become more likely. If support tilts towards Russia and the UAE, the planned increase could remain in place, despite opposition.

Every statement from top officials matters at this stage. Comments from ministers—whether in official meetings or informal remarks to the media—can shift expectations. In past discussions, a single interview has altered momentum, as traders recalibrate positions based on any sign of compromise or escalation in disagreements.

With the upcoming meetings set, the time between now and those dates will shape how decisions unfold. Supply forecasts, consumption trends, and external pressures will all play their part. As tensions within OPEC+ remain unresolved, market participants must be prepared for movements that might not wait for the official gatherings to take place.