Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin will deliver a speech titled “Inflation Then and Now” at the Northern Virginia Chamber of Commerce. The event is set to take place at 1330 GMT, which corresponds to 0830 US Eastern Time.

Thomas is scheduled to speak on inflation, comparing past trends to present conditions. His remarks will likely provide insight into how policymakers view recent price movements and what that means for future monetary policy. Given his role at the Richmond Fed, his perspective carries weight, and traders will be listening for any hints about interest rates or broader economic conditions.

When central bankers speak, they do so with carefully chosen words. If he acknowledges that inflation remains stubborn or hints at further pressure on prices, it could push expectations towards tighter monetary policy. Conversely, if he suggests inflation is moderating as anticipated, markets could adjust in the opposite direction. Every phrase will be scrutinised for shifts in tone or outlook.

Markets tend to react not only to the content of speeches like this but also to their timing. His remarks come amid ongoing debates about whether the Federal Reserve has finished raising interest rates or if further action is needed. If his rhetoric aligns with recent statements from his colleagues, it could reinforce existing positions. However, if he diverges or implies new risks, that might spark short-term adjustments.

Those following interest rate movements should pay attention to whether Thomas links current inflation behaviour to any broader trends in employment or spending. If he connects higher-than-expected price pressures to consumer demand, that could be seen as a reason for the Fed to maintain its stance. On the other hand, if he attributes recent inflation trends to temporary factors, that may soften expectations of further tightening.

By the time he finishes speaking, traders will have parsed his comments for any indication of whether economic data is pushing policymakers in one direction or another. It won’t just be about what he says explicitly—what he chooses not to mention could be equally telling.