The USDCHF pair has recently fallen below a support zone but is now rising back above it. The USD is currently supported against major currencies due to a risk-off mood following poor US data releases.
Recent weak economic reports include the US Flash Services PMI and a weak Consumer Confidence report, although inflation expectations have risen. Upcoming NFP and CPI reports will be important ahead of the March FOMC decision.
Technically, the daily chart shows a break below 0.8960, with potential for buyers to rally towards 0.92. On the 4-hour chart, recent price action indicates buyers may target a deeper pullback to 0.90.
The 1-hour chart reflects a current counter-trendline, where a pullback could lead to a rally or a further decline towards 0.87. Key upcoming data includes US Jobless Claims and PCE figures.
This latest turn of events places traders in a tough spot, as the dollar regains support despite earlier weakness. The dip under a zone that had previously acted as a floor signals vulnerability, yet the swift rebound suggests buying pressure remains strong. With risk sentiment leaning cautious following disappointing economic indicators, this shift is not entirely unexpected. Market participants appear to be reassessing their outlook as upcoming reports loom.
The Flash Services PMI and weaker consumer confidence data paint a picture of economic concern, even though inflation expectations have inched higher. If upcoming figures show further strain in the labour market or softer spending, investors may question whether Federal Reserve policy needs adjusting. The NFP and CPI numbers will be watched closely, as they will set the tone for how officials approach the next rate decision.
From a technical standpoint, the breach of 0.8960 on the daily timeframe initially hinted at a deeper sell-off. However, price is now bouncing back, and the possibility of a move towards 0.92 cannot be dismissed. The four-hour chart offers a more detailed look at this shift, where recent movement suggests buyers may attempt to push towards 0.90 before any renewed selling emerges. The one-hour chart provides further insight, where price currently trades near a counter-trend level. Whether traders take advantage of this to drive price higher or let it slip towards 0.87 will depend on upcoming developments.
Attention now turns to jobless claims and PCE inflation data, both of which could influence short-term direction. If initial claims rise above expectations, concern over labour market health may resurface, adding pressure on the dollar. Conversely, if PCE data shows inflation remains stubborn, expectations for rate cuts may be pushed further out. This uncertainty means price action could remain volatile in the days ahead.