Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist observes the US Dollar’s rise due to tariff anxieties and weak stocks.

by VT Markets
/
Feb 28, 2025

The US Dollar (USD) saw gains recently, influenced by ongoing tariff concerns and declines in equity markets. Although the USD remains strong, it has slightly retreated from its peak as Asian stock markets experienced significant drops.

The Mexican Peso (MXN) and Canadian Dollar (CAD) performed moderately well, remaining stable against a stronger USD, while other Asian currencies and the Swiss Franc (CHF) lagged. Bond markets showed overall increases, leading to lower yields.

Expectations for US Personal Income and Spending data include a 0.4% rise in income and a 0.2% increase in spending for January, alongside a projected 0.3% rise in the core PCE deflator. The annual gain may moderate to 2.6%.

The US Dollar has been showing resilience, though it has slightly eased from its highest levels. This shift came as Asian equity markets experienced pronounced declines, which in turn influenced overall sentiment. With concerns over tariffs playing a role, the currency still holds strong, but any further movement will depend on how risk appetite develops.

On the other hand, the Canadian Dollar and the Mexican Peso have demonstrated relative stability, navigating a firm Dollar without losing too much ground. This steadiness suggests a degree of support for both currencies, even as broader markets react to external pressures. Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc and several Asian currencies have struggled, pointing to a divergence in how different regions are adjusting to the current climate.

Bond markets have broadly strengthened, pushing yields lower. This general increase in bond prices signals a shift towards safer assets, a move that often occurs during uncertainty in equities. Falling yields could also shape expectations around monetary policy, as investors reassess rate prospects in the wake of economic data.

Looking ahead, upcoming figures on US Personal Income and Spending are expected to show a 0.4% rise in income, while spending is forecasted to increase by 0.2%. At the same time, the core PCE deflator is anticipated to climb by 0.3%, with annual gains likely slowing slightly to 2.6%. These numbers matter because they reflect both consumer strength and inflation trends, two factors that influence how policy decisions unfold.

For those in derivatives markets, movements in currencies, bonds, and economic data must be watched closely. A strong Dollar can affect volatility elsewhere, while shifting yields may alter expectations around future rate changes. Keeping an eye on how different market segments respond will help in making better trading decisions in the coming weeks.

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