Inflation data from France reported no change in February, contrasting with expectations of a 0.2% increase. This has raised concerns about trade and tariffs affecting the outlook for the euro.
Current market parameters are set by the 100-day moving average at 1.0517 and the 40-day at 1.0392. Trend momentum signals indicate a lack of strength, suggesting that range trading will likely continue.
Short-term price action appears more bearish, following repeated failures of the euro in the low 1.05 zone. A downward push towards 1.02 is possible in the near term.
When we see inflation figures holding steady where a rise was expected, it sends a message that economic pressures may not be playing out as predicted. For traders watching currency movements, this means that earlier assumptions about interest rate paths may have to be reconsidered. The euro’s sluggishness isn’t happening in isolation—concerns over trade policies, particularly tariffs, are contributing to the uncertainty.
Looking at the technical stance, we see that the euro remains contained within a structured range, shaped by the 100-day and 40-day moving averages. With the longer-term average positioned above, there’s an upper limit being respected, while the shorter-term provides a softer level of support. Momentum indicators confirm that there’s no convincing push in either direction, which often suggests that attempts to break out of the range are likely to struggle.
Short-term price action isn’t painting an optimistic picture. Each time the euro has attempted to hold above 1.05, it’s faltered. The repeated failures have worn away confidence, while bearish sentiment is becoming more apparent. Without a shift in positioning or fresh upside drivers, pressure remains tilted downwards. The path towards 1.02 is open, and if support levels fail to hold in the coming sessions, traders will need to assess the potential for a deeper slide.
