Switzerland’s GDP increased by 0.2% in Q4, which matched expectations. The previous quarter showed a growth rate of 0.4%.

Year-on-year, GDP rose by 1.5%, below the expected 1.6%. The prior figure of 2.0% was revised down to 1.9%.

The growth was supported by both the industry and services sectors. Additionally, positive contributions came from both consumption and investment.

A steady expansion of 0.2% in the last quarter suggests stability, though the pace of growth slowed from the previous 0.4%. With an annual increase of 1.5%, output fell just short of projections, though downward revisions to past data indicate that earlier momentum may have been slightly overstated. Manufacturing and services both played their part in keeping activity on an upward path, aided by household spending and business investment.

Given these numbers, there is little to suggest an immediate shift in direction. Growth remains intact, though at a slower rate than earlier in the year. With industry contributing positively, demand for goods did not falter, while a steady services sector points to resilience in domestic consumption. Investment also remained a net positive, implying that businesses have not pulled back on expenditures despite a slower pace of overall expansion.

The difference between actual and forecasted annual output was not vast, but it reinforces what we have been considering about momentum slowing. A downward revision to the prior quarter’s growth rate puts recent expansion into better context. What initially appeared slightly stronger was, in fact, more moderate, and that needs to be kept in mind when assessing what comes next.

It remains necessary to track how businesses and households react in the coming period. If firms continue to allocate capital at a reasonable pace and discretionary spending does not weaken, there is reason to anticipate a continuation of this trend. However, any signs of hesitation from either side could shift expectations, particularly if external conditions add new pressures.

From the perspective of those responding to changing conditions, the focus should be on whether momentum can hold at these levels or whether cracks begin to appear. The data does not point to immediate trouble, but softer expansion leaves less room for unexpected shocks. Encouragingly, we have not yet seen clear signs of contraction in key areas. That said, any indications of weakness in future updates could invite adjustments to existing positions.

Measures of inflation and employment will remain particularly relevant, as steady consumer demand played a role in keeping growth afloat. Should price pressures persist or job markets show strain, sentiment could shift. If businesses anticipate tighter conditions ahead, investment intentions may shift accordingly.

For now, the main takeaway is that activity continues expanding, though with less momentum than before. Whether this pattern holds will become clearer in the next set of figures. Momentum has slowed, but spending and investment have yet to show clear signs of reversing.