Mexico has stated that it will delay the announcement of retaliatory tariffs until Sunday. This date coincides with the announcement of the new leader of the Liberal Party in Canada, likely to be Mark Carney.
Carney is expected to call an immediate election, which may occur between April 14 and May 26. If tariffs are not reduced, they could overshadow the election that initially seemed favourable for Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, who has declined in polls due to concerns about his similarities to Trump.
Canadian Public Opinion Shifts
An Angus Reid poll indicates a shift in Canadian public opinion. Market reactions may reflect optimism if tariffs are adjusted, but a lack of reversal could lead to challenges next Monday.
Mexico’s decision to hold off on announcing retaliatory measures until the end of the weekend aligns with a key political event in Canada. The timing suggests that officials in Mexico City are aware of the potential effect on Ottawa’s decision-making. Once the new leader of the Liberal Party is confirmed, the response from the Canadian government could influence market sentiment before trading resumes next week.
Carney, expected to win the party leadership, is widely believed to be preparing for a swift general election. Holding the vote as early as mid-April or as late as the final week of May would give him time to frame the economic discussion around trade disputes. Meanwhile, Poilievre, who previously benefited from voter discontent with the Liberals, has lost momentum. The perception that his positions align too closely with those of Trump has weakened his standing in recent surveys. If that trend continues, the coming weeks could reshape expectations for Canada’s political direction and trade policies.
Market Sentiment And Trade Policy
Public opinion in Canada is showing signs of movement. The latest polling from Angus Reid suggests that sentiment has shifted, although how this translates into government action remains uncertain. Changes to trade policy—if they come—may ease concerns and spark optimism in markets. Without reductions in tariffs, however, traders must prepare for increased difficulty as early as Monday. Given the close link between political events and financial reactions, positioning ahead of the coming week requires caution.
