The GBPUSD has fluctuated around the 100-day moving average (MA) over the past five trading days. It surpassed the 100-day MA for the first time since November 2024, indicating market uncertainty regarding future movements.

Support has emerged on dips near the 38.2% retracement level of 1.2607, following the decline from the September 2024 high. This support was maintained early in the week, suggesting buyers have a short to medium-term advantage.

Currently, GBPUSD is testing a new high at 1.2690, with buyer activity appearing strong. However, if the price falls below the 100-day MA, it may lead to a shift in market dynamics.

The recent price movements around the 100-day moving average suggest that traders remain divided on the long-term direction. Although the pair briefly moved above this level, the failure to establish a sustained push higher reflects hesitation. This kind of behaviour often indicates that participants are weighing new data releases and external factors before making larger commitments.

The presence of support at 1.2607 reinforces the idea that buyers still hold some control. Each time the pair has approached this level, demand has shown resilience, preventing a deeper decline. When a retracement level repeatedly attracts interest, it underscores its importance, making it a key area to watch in the coming sessions. If it holds firm, further attempts at pushing beyond recent highs could follow.

Now that the price is challenging 1.2690, attention will centre on whether the momentum from buyers can continue. If this level is breached and maintained, it opens the door for further upside. On the other hand, a failure to hold above it would strengthen the argument that sellers remain active.

The role of the 100-day moving average cannot be ignored. It has acted as a dividing line, and a fall back below it would suggest that sentiment is shifting. Traders will need to monitor whether downside moves are accompanied by increased volume or if declines remain limited and slow. If the latter occurs, it could imply a temporary pause instead of a full reversal.

Considering recent market behaviour, there is little room for complacency. Trends can change quickly, especially when prices hover around key technical levels. Watching how price responds around both support and resistance zones will offer guidance on whether momentum remains intact or begins to wane.