The NZDUSD pair is nearing a key support zone as the market seeks new catalysts. Recent data has shown the USD gaining strength against other major currencies due to a risk-off mood triggered by poor US economic indicators.

The weak US Flash Services PMI and rising long-term inflation expectations have heightened concerns over the Federal Reserve’s response to a possible economic slowdown. This backdrop is pertinent as the Non-Farm Payroll and Consumer Price Index reports approach ahead of the March FOMC meeting.

On the daily chart, NZDUSD is approaching the 0.57 support level, which may attract buyers for a potential rally towards 0.5850. Conversely, sellers may target a move below 0.55.

The 4-hour chart indicates bullish momentum defined by an upward trendline, with a pullback potentially allowing buyers to target 0.5850. Sellers will be looking for a break below this trendline to increase their positions towards the 0.55 target.

The 1-hour chart reveals minor resistance at 0.5735, where a pullback could attract sellers. A breach of this resistance may encourage buyers to aim for higher values.

Upcoming US data, including the Consumer Confidence report, Jobless Claims on Thursday, and PCE data on Friday, is likely to influence market direction.

With markets reacting sharply to shifting sentiment, every data point holds more weight—especially with traders scrutinising how Jerome and his colleagues at the Federal Reserve might adjust policy. Last week’s weaker-than-expected US Flash Services PMI reminded us that parts of the economy may not be as resilient as previously thought. That, coupled with higher long-term inflation expectations, has created an uneasy environment ahead of the key reports scheduled over the coming days. The job market, inflation, and consumer confidence data will all feed directly into expectations for the next FOMC meeting.

NZDUSD is now hovering near an area that has historically attracted buying interest. On a daily timeframe, the 0.57 support level has caught attention, with past price action suggesting buyers could step in here. If demand re-emerges, a move up towards 0.5850 wouldn’t be surprising. However, if sentiment worsens or the US dollar gains further strength, those betting against the kiwi may attempt to drive prices beneath 0.55. Such a move would reinforce the broader bearish trend seen over the past few months.

Shorter-term price action reflects the ongoing push and pull. The 4-hour chart shows a rising trendline supporting the recovery, with buyers defending this structure. If the exchange rate stays above this dynamic support, upward movement towards 0.5850 remains possible. But a close beneath the trendline would likely encourage sellers to extend their positions, reinforcing the broader downtrend.

Even tighter timeframes expose near-term hurdles. Market participants are eyeing 0.5735, a level that has already slowed upward momentum. Should prices fail to breach this barrier, it may set the stage for another bout of selling pressure. Conversely, if the pair clears resistance, it could attract fresh buyers expecting further upside.

This week’s scheduled events could add fuel to volatility. Consumer confidence figures may offer insights into how households are weighing inflationary pressures against economic resilience. Thursday’s jobless claims will provide another snapshot of labour market conditions, a key factor influencing monetary policy outlooks. Then there’s the Core PCE price index on Friday—the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. With uncertainty swirling around rate cuts, any surprise here may lead to repositioning by traders looking to stay ahead of the next big move.