The US Dollar (USD) has strengthened slightly, though gains against major currencies remain limited. European stocks have declined, while US equity futures show some firmness.
Bond markets have softened, with Treasury yields rising by 4-5 basis points. The mixed performance of the USD appears influenced by tariff uncertainties and month-end demand.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) and Swiss Franc (CHF) are lagging, whereas the Mexican Peso (MXN) and Canadian Dollar (CAD) are performing better. Technical indicators show the USD trading below its 100-day moving average, with sensitivity to weak US economic data following a recent drop in consumer confidence.
The dollar’s modest rise suggests that traders are not entirely convinced of its direction, especially with ongoing questions about trade policy and the usual month-end shifts in currency flows. Even though there is some resilience in US markets, European equities have lost ground, indicating that risk appetite is under pressure. Meanwhile, the bond market is adjusting, with Treasury yields edging higher.
Among the major currencies, the yen and franc are underperforming, hinting at declining demand for traditionally safer assets. At the same time, the peso and Canadian dollar are showing relative strength, which could be partly due to stabilising commodity markets or confidence in North American economic prospects.
From a technical perspective, the dollar is holding below its 100-day moving average, reinforcing the idea that it needs a stronger push—perhaps in the form of solid economic data—to sustain any upward movement. Traders have already seen how quickly sentiment can turn following weaker US reports, such as the recent soft consumer confidence figures.
With all of this in mind, we are watching how economic releases shape expectations. Markets are highly responsive to shifts in data, and any signs of further weakness could weigh on the dollar, affecting broader asset pricing. Bond yields are another focal point, as their movement reflects adjustments in interest rate outlooks and risk preferences.
As we move forward, the balance between market positioning and fresh macroeconomic signals will determine how the dollar trades. Recent movements in US futures suggest some optimism, but whether that translates into broader momentum depends on the incoming data and any policy shifts that emerge.
