The US-Ukraine deal has been released, with President Zelensky set to travel to the US for its signing. This agreement establishes a Reconstruction Investment Fund aimed at fostering collaboration between the two nations.

The fund’s investment strategy will focus on Ukrainian assets, including natural resources and key infrastructures, such as ports and state-owned enterprises. The US is committed to a long-term financial relationship, involving a joint management approach with Ukraine.

In total, Ukraine will contribute 50% of future monetisation revenues from its natural resources to the fund. The deal also includes provisions to ensure the protection of mutual investments.

This agreement outlines a long-term financial commitment between both countries, with Washington securing influence over Ukrainian assets in exchange for investment. By requiring half of future revenues from resource monetisation—an arrangement that effectively ties Ukraine’s economic recovery to the fund—the US has ensured a degree of oversight. This structure reduces uncertainty for investors, as joint management prevents sudden policy shifts that could deter capital.

Natural resource-backed financing creates an interesting dynamic for pricing. As Ukraine remains a commodity-heavy economy, future asset values will fluctuate based on energy demand and infrastructure stability. Ports, for example, serve as major transit hubs for agricultural exports, and with US involvement in their administration, efficiency gains could materialise. If those improvements translate into increased shipments, related commodities may see higher liquidity.

For those watching volatility-driven opportunities, the protection clauses within the agreement imply lower downside risk for foreign capital flows. Joint oversight suggests that abrupt nationalisation policies are unlikely, which stabilises expectations in sectors subject to government influence. That assurance reduces uncertainty premiums typically baked into valuations when operating in politically exposed markets.

With Zelensky preparing to formalise this arrangement in Washington, clarity on implementation details will follow. Negotiations of this scale frequently involve secondary agreements, and any adjustments could alter perceived risk exposure. Until the final text is available, pricing in potential legislative changes remains a factor.

Market reactions will likely hinge on whether Ukraine enacts domestic policies that complement this framework. If institutional safeguards improve, capital flows may rise at a pace that shortens the recovery timeline. Any divergence, however, would have the opposite effect on valuations in relevant sectors.