The USD/JPY pair rose above 150.00, reaching its highest level since the previous week. This increase comes after a period of consolidation between 149.00 and 150.00, with support found at the January low of 148.63.

The recent jump to 150.40-50 appears to be influenced by a technical break of the 200-hour moving average. Despite this rise, a bearish sentiment has persisted due to sellers maintaining control over price action.

The bond market’s behaviour is still a factor, with 10-year Treasury yields at 4.24%, possibly affecting the USD/JPY’s momentum. Further analysis of month-end flows and upcoming US PCE price data will be necessary to assess the sustainability of this movement.

The movement beyond 150.00 suggests that previous resistance levels are being tested, and the break above the 200-hour moving average signals a potential shift in short-term momentum. However, reluctance from buyers to sustain control means risks remain, and the possibility of a reversal cannot be ignored.

Bond market conditions remain closely tied to price fluctuations, with 10-year Treasury yields hovering around 4.24%. Any adjustments in yield levels could either reinforce or weaken recent price action. With traders keeping a close watch on this relationship, sudden shifts in sentiment are possible, particularly if yields start to retreat or climb unexpectedly.

As month-end approaches, capital flows could introduce unexpected pressure. Positioning adjustments ahead of key data releases frequently bring volatility, and historical patterns suggest that dislocations may emerge in the short-term. The upcoming US PCE price index will likely offer insight into inflation trends. Given the Federal Reserve’s reliance on this data for policy decisions, any deviations from expectations may prompt swift market reactions.

In the days ahead, price stability will depend on whether buyers can maintain momentum and whether external influences, such as bond yields and economic data, align with recent movements. If hesitation among market participants increases, another phase of consolidation may emerge, similar to what was seen between 149.00 and 150.00. Conversely, stronger conviction from buyers could challenge recent seller dominance and shift price action further upward.

With market conditions shifting quickly, awareness of technical and fundamental indicators will be essential. Sharp moves can emerge as liquidity changes near the end of the month, and major data releases could accentuate any existing imbalances. Understanding these dynamics will be key in managing exposure over the coming sessions.