US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is scheduled to speak on CNBC at 8:40 AM ET regarding tariffs. He previously indicated that the cabinet would discuss tariffs yesterday and announce their decisions shortly thereafter.
Lutnick acknowledged progress on border issues but noted that more needs to be done regarding fentanyl. A decision from the president on tariffs is expected today, with a public announcement set for tomorrow.
Tariff Rate Speculation
There is speculation that Lutnick may provide insights on whether tariff rates could be below 25%, given his familiarity with the current administration’s stance on the matter.
Lutnick’s upcoming television appearance comes at a time when markets are already factoring in potential policy shifts. Given his prior comments, there is little doubt that tariffs have been a focus of internal discussions. The expectation of a presidential decision today, followed by a public announcement tomorrow, suggests that any adjustments will be formalised within hours. The pace of these developments leaves little time for markets to react pre-emptively, making his remarks closely watched.
His reference to progress on border concerns reflects ongoing negotiations, but his pointed remark about fentanyl signals that certain obstacles remain. This is not just a matter of diplomatic negotiations—policy responses to such issues often play a direct role in determining trade measures. If Washington ties any tariff adjustments to additional conditions, there may be more layers to this policy shift than initially anticipated.
Speculation around whether tariff rates might be set below 25% stems from his deep involvement in these discussions. If he provides clear indications of a lower threshold, markets will likely adjust swiftly. However, should his comments lack that clarity, volatility may remain elevated as traders reassess risk and positioning.
Market Reactions And Risks
With little ambiguity regarding the timing of an official statement, focus turns to deciphering whether today’s decision aligns with prior expectations. If new conditions are introduced, traders will need to consider potential delays in implementation and broader implications for supply chains. Given the direct economic consequences of such measures, market participants will need to parse every word carefully.
While the weight of the final say does not rest with him, his insights have historically reflected broader policy leanings within the administration. If his remarks deviate from earlier indications, they could set off a swift repricing of risk, particularly if a softer stance is hinted at. The fact that he is scheduled to speak before an official announcement suggests that markets may not have to wait long for early signals.
There will be little room for misinterpretation—markets will move in response to any perceived shifts. If tariffs land higher than expected, businesses may be forced to reassess supply strategies. If lower, sectors poised to benefit will see renewed optimism. Either way, positioning will need to be reassessed promptly.
